Photo by Deb Gau Bruce Nustad, of the Minnesota Retailers Association, spoke to area businesspeople on Wednesday.

MARSHALL — The holiday shopping season might be a busier one for Minnesota retailers.

Based on recent consumer trends, people are doing less shopping online, according to the president of the Minnesota Retailers Association

“The good news is, we’re going to see just phenomenal in-store shopping over Thanksgiving this year,” Bruce Nustad said. “For retailers that have a brick-and-mortar presence, you’re going to see people come in, you’re going to see door swings, you’re going to see purchasing.”

Nustad was the keynote speaker at the Marshall Area Chamber of Commerce’s annual meeting Wednesday. He gave Chamber members an overview of retail businesses’ role in Minnesota’s economy, as well as trends in consumer behavior.

Minnesota has a population of about 5 million, which means there are about 5 million consumers in the state, Nustad said.

“Consumers really drive what happens in retail. You are sort of in charge of what happens in retail,” he said.

Retail — businesses that sell products to other people — accounts for about 20% of Minnesota’s economy, Nustad said. There are about 90,000 retail businesses across the state, including people with side businesses, he said. Retail also accounts for about 1 million jobs in Minnesota, or one in five jobs statewide, he said.

Retail consumers play a key role in generating revenue for the state of Minnesota, and helping the state run, Nustad said. Sales taxes account for $1 out of every $4 in the state’s general fund, “which is actually a pretty staggering amount, if you think about it,” Nustad said.

There are almost 250 verified retail businesses in the city of Marshall, but the actual number could be as high as 536, Nustad said. In Marshall, “a pretty good chunk” of retailers are small businesses with fewer than 10 employees.

“It’s like 60%. That’s a pretty good number. That’s a little higher than the state average,” Nustad said.

Small retailers help to drive business in a community, he said.

Nustad said it’s anticipated that there will be more in-person shopping at Minnesota businesses during the holiday season. Consumers are also expected to spend about $902 per person on purchases like food, gifts and decorations this year.

“People are spending more money on bigger items, and it’s a little bit of a pandemic phenomenon,” Nustad said. “We spent a lot during the pandemic — we bought our hot tubs, that kind of stuff. Then we kind of reduced our big-ticket spending for a while. Now we’re back into big-ticket spending a little bit, so you’re kind of seeing furniture and things like that on the uptick again.”

Special experiences or good deals are also likely to draw customers to brick-and-mortar stores instead of shopping online, he said.

However, Nustad urged business owners to remember that holiday spending predictions included the cost of inflation. While retailers anticipate increased spending this Christmas, it doesn’t necessarily mean increased profits.

“You really have to sort of factor that into those numbers. This is sales numbers, not real adjusted dollar numbers,” he said. “That’s my bad news for retailers. We’re telling you people are going to spend more, but actually, you know, profits are probably going to be kind of flat.”

Nustad said state laws and policies are another area that affects Minnesota retail businesses. He said the Minnesota Retailers Association is watching to see how businesses are impacted by the rollout of Minnesota’s new paid family and medical leave, and the new retail delivery fee that went into effect in the state this year.

“That’s a 50-cent delivery fee on a lot of items over $100, with a bunch of exemptions. So it’s kind of confusing for retail,” Nustad said. “We’re watching that really closely.”

This year’s state elections could also have implications for business policies in Minnesota. However, Nustad said it could mean fewer new laws for businesses to adjust to.

“I’m sure you’ve all heard there’s a tied House, so there isn’t an all-DFL, Democrat majority across all of state government. So that will slow things down,” Nustad said.